Geopolitics - Tuesday, August 19, 2008 16:43 - Comments

Add Russia to China, end of IPOs and tightening financing

Here’s the weekly piece from Stratfor that’s republishable, obviously focused on Russia.

Bottom line is this: the Russians need to reaffirm now their power, seize the “window of opportunity” of US military engagements, and demonstrate its willingness to crush its periphery. Basically this or slip as a major world player.

Actually, I find Stratfor a bit optimistic, as they seem to underestimate the situation on the ground (Russians are clearly settling in) and the timetables of the very start of the conflict. They tip towards Russian provocations, Georgian start, Russian reaction based on pre-deployment in North Ossetia. What transpires now is that the Russians had actually pre-positioned a major build-up of forces in South Ossetia.

What this means: we will certainly see a major escalation at least verbally, but also probably on the ground through the theaters on the globe. Add to this the Beijing olympics aftermath, which will probably be difficult domestically, the predictable disruption (route cuts, bankruptcies and mergers) in the airline industry, etc… The outlook for the global business environment isn’t particularly good and we should start to feel these effects from Q4 this year.

The consequences of the whole shebang added to the financing tightening and exit opportunities scarcity for entreprise 2.0 start-ups ? The answer is in the question.

THE REAL WORLD ORDER

By George Friedman

On Sept. 11, 1990, U.S. President George H. W. Bush addressed Congress.

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